Hurricane Danny Dies, Tropical Storm Erika Emerges

Just as quickly as we saw Hurricane Danny grow and become the season’s first major hurricane within 48 hours it had faded and was torn apart my the strong wind shear that has been over the Caribbean Sea. Last night Tropical Storm Erika was named and she seems to have a more northwestward track then her short lived predecessor Danny did. Erika is expected to slowly strengthen as it heads towards the northern Leeward Islands and then up towards the southern Bahamas perhaps as the second hurricane of the season. Then is appears to be heading towards the East Coast after that. Once again, it is still to far to tell how long Erika will live and/or if she will gain hurricane status at all. The environment north of the Caribbean sea is less hostile so we will have to keep a close watch on Erika. Here is the latest official forecast track for Erika.

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Danny, the Atlantic Season’s First Hurricane!

As of 11AM EDT The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Danny to a hurricane, making it the first of the 2015 Atlantic season. Hurricane Danny is packing winds of 75mph. It’s forward speed has also taken a shift to WNW at 12mph. Danny is currently forecast to remain on this WNW track for the next few days as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands and the Puerto Rico region after that. Its interaction with land will likely weaken it some but it is still too far out to know how much of an interaction danny will have with any mountainous land masses such as Puerto Rico. The entire Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard need to continue to monitor Danny closely over the weekend. It is still to far out to say if Danny will have any impact on the lower 48. I will continue to keep you informed of it’s progress these next several days. Now is the time to get your hurricane preparedness plans in place so you know what to do should Danny approach your area. Below is the latest official forecast track and discussion from The National Hurricane Center for Hurricane Danny.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Danny
was located by satellite near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 44.8
West. Danny is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Danny is a small tropical cyclone.  Hurricane-force winds only
extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

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Tropical Storm Danny, 4th of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

‪#TropicalStorm‬ ‪#‎Danny‬ is now the 4th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season! It currently is packing winds of 40mph and is moving west at 12mph. If It can avoid the dry air to its north it could continue strengthening into a hurricane over the next few days and should approach the Lesser Antilles by this weekend. Check out the current projected path of the storm issued by the National Hurricane Center.  Get the Whole Picture Here

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Here is the latest forecast discussion from The National Hurricane Center:

"The convective cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has continued
to improve since the previous advisory, including the development of
interlocking curved convective cloud bands and the formation of an
upper-level anticyclonic outflow pattern. Passive microwave images
indicate that the cyclone has a well-developed low- and mid-level
structure. The intensity has been increased to 35 kt based on a
Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and a
UW-CIMMS ADT estimate of T2.5/35 kt. As a result, the system has
been upgraded to Tropical Storm Danny on this advisory.

The initial motion estimate remains 280/11 kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The
global and regional models remain in good agreement on Danny moving
west-northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge
located along 45W longitude for the next 72 hours. After that time,
however, there is some spread in the model guidance based on how
much and how soon the ridge builds back in to the north of Danny.
The UKMET retains the weakness in the ridge longer, taking the
cyclone northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In contrast, the ECMWF
model strengthens the ridge sooner, which drives Danny more westward
and considerably faster at 96 and 120 hours. The GFS poorly
initialized Danny this morning, and it is noticeably slower than
all of the available model guidance and, therefore, has been given
much less weight on this forecast cycle. The official forecast track
is faster than the consensus model TVCN due to the much slower GFS
model inducing a significant slow bias in the model consensus, and
is roughly a blend of the ECMWF, HWRF, and GFS-Ensemble mean
forecast solutions.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions surrounding Danny are expected
to be favorable for slow but steady strengthening throughout the
forecast period. The only inhibiting factor appears to be dry
mid-level air located to the north and west of Danny occasionally
getting entrained into the circulation. However, the low vertical
wind shear regime that Danny will be migrating through should allow
the convective structure of the cyclone to steadily increase in
organization, which should enable the circulation to quickly mix out
any dry air intrusions. The official intensity forecast is similar
to but slightly lower than the intensity consensus model IVCN
through 96 hours, and near the LGEM intensity model at 120 hours."