Southern Soaker This Week

I hope everyone in the south enjoyed the nice sunny weather this past weekend. Starting this afternoon and lasting through next monday much of the south can expect to receive anywhere from 1-5 inches of rain. See the forecast maps below. The first is the GFS model which trends towards higher amounts. The second is the NAM model through Thursday.

gfs_namer_144_precip_ptot nam_namer_084_precip_ptot

image6Here in Atlanta, Ga and the surrounding area we will be looking to pick up anywhere from 1-2.5 inches through tomorrow with more rain expected late this week.

It is likely that flood watches may need to be issued for some areas in the southeast. I will keep a close watch to the SPC and local NWS offices for any flood watches and/or warnings that are issued and post them on our Facebook page. Keep an umbrella with you if you are traveling at all this week.

 

 

 

Major Severe Weather Outbreak Underway!

A major severe weather outbreak us underway today from the Ohio valley down into the central plains. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a MODERATE risk outlook for today.

…There is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening from parts of northern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas into western  and southern Missouri …there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms surrounding the moderate risk area…from north central Oklahoma east northeastward into southern Indiana….there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across surrounding areas of the southern and central plains through the ohio valley.

Very large hail…damaging wind and tornadoes are expected over  parts of the central plains and lower Missouri valley late this   afternoon and evening.  Other strong to severe storms may develop   from parts of Texas northeastward into the Ohio valley and central  appalachians.

See the graphic below to see the forecast areas.

day1otlk_2000

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 26,708 916,028 Bartlesville, OK…Ponca City, OK…Derby, KS…Pittsburg, KS…Winfield, KS…
ENHANCED 101,914 12,388,472 Indianapolis, IN…Kansas City, MO…Tulsa, OK…Wichita, KS…St. Louis, MO…
SLIGHT 219,174 21,557,298 Columbus, OH…Oklahoma City, OK…Omaha, NE…Cincinnati, OH…Lexington-Fayette, KY…
MARGINAL 218,531 27,333,412 Chicago, IL…Cleveland, OH…Raleigh, NC…Pittsburgh, PA…Toledo, OH…

day1probotlk_2000_hail day1probotlk_2000_torn day1probotlk_2000_wind

Severe Weather Forecast for Tuesday 3/31/2015

***UPDATE*** The Storm Prediction Center added several severe thunderstorm watches. Severe thunderstorm watch #9 for parts of Alabama and Georgia which is in effect until 8pm EDT   and severe thunderstorm watch #10 for portions of Mississippi and Arkansas which is valid until 7pm CDT.

ww0009_radar

ww0010_radar

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There is a wide area in the Slight risk threat for severe today from the Plains to the Southeast! Primary threats today will be damaging winds and hail although a tornado or two across southern Oklahoma cannot be ruled out. See the graphics for the risk areas. There will be another round of severe weather beginning tomorrow from Iowa and Nebraska. This will sweep southeast on Thursday and Friday bringing the risk for severe weather into the Tennessee Valley and Southeast.

day1otlk_1630

 

 

day1probotlk_1630_hail day1probotlk_1630_torn day1probotlk_1630_wind