Severe Weather Threat Across Central and Southern Plains

Today there is an enhanced risk for severe weather across parts of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes will be possible, especially into portions of southern Nebraska and central Kansas. Below is the convective outlook and tornado outlook for today across the area.

Here is the official wording from the Storm Prediction Center for today:

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY…WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH AND AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RESULT WILL BE AN AXIS OF CONSIDERABLE CONDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS FOCUSING PROBABILITIES ON AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

…NEB/KS… THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KS…AND WILL ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS REGION WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S…WITH AFTERNOON HEATING YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. 12Z GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS BY MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO TRACK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT. FARTHER SOUTH IN KS ALONG THE DRYLINE…THE CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION IS LESS THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA…BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AN ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK AREA. STORMS HERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDELY SPACED…BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM.

…NORTHWEST OK… THE AREA WITH THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN ROBUST CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE IS OVER NORTHWEST OK. HOWEVER…VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS AGREE ON A STRONG CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CAP. ANY STORM THAT FORMS IN THIS REGION WOULD HAVE A HIGH CONDITIONAL RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER… WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5 PERCENT TORNADO AND 15 PERCENT HAIL PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

…SOUTHWEST OK INTO TX… VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG HEATING OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TX…WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S. THIS AREA MAY BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST TO RECOVER FROM THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER KS…WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THIS REGION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS. …MID ATLANTIC… WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN A RATHER SMALL AREA OF SOUTHERN PA INTO NORTHERN VA. THIS REGION IS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES…WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

..HART/CONIGLIO.. 05/06/2015

It will be a dangerous day across parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Make sure you have those weather radios charged and ON today!

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